Seed advantage in sport competitions: the case of professional judo

Vivien Brunel

doi:10.18002/rama.v17i2.7047

Autores

Vivien Brunel Pôle Léonard de Vinci (France) http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5624-1194

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18002/rama.v17i2.7047

Palavras-chave:

Artes marciais, desportos de combate, judo, ranking, simulação de Monte-Carlo, concorrência, semeando, cabeça-de-chave

Entidades:

The author received no funding for this work.

Resumo

O objetivo deste trabalho foi quantificar a vantagem de ser cabeça-de-chave em competições profissionais de judo disputadas pelo sistema eliminatório. Usamos simulações de Monte-Carlo para calcular estatísticas, incluindo a probabilidade de vencer a competição, chegar à final ou ganhar uma medalha num sorteio de competição padrão ou aleatório. Mostramos que a vantagem semeada é muitas vezes significativa. Como resultado, a classificação incorreta no ranking coloca os melhores atletas não cabeça-de-chave em grande desvantagem. Curiosamente, a vantagem do cabeça-de-chave é robusta ao considerar parâmetros como sexo, número de atletas e suposições do modelo. A simulação é uma ferramenta flexível que permite aos atletas tomar decisões quanto à gestão de sua posição no ranking e otimizar as suas chances de sucesso em grandes competições.

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Biografia Autor

Vivien Brunel, Pôle Léonard de Vinci (France)

Professor of applied mathematics and finance at Ecole Supérieure d’Ingénieurs Léonard de Vinci (ESILV) a French “Grande Ecole” based in La Défense, the main business district in Paris. He also has position in the banking industry as the head of risk models of Société Générale. These two positions help him to bridge academics with the industry and he published regularly articles in academic peer reviewed journals in the field of risk management, scoring and statistical modelling. He is also a columnist in the magazine “the spirit of judo” in which he writes about science and judo; he has 40 years of experience in judo and aïkido. E-mail: vivien.brunel@devinci.fr

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